Fortuna Köln U19 5–1 Arminia Bielefeld U19

Fortuna Köln U19

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Arminia Bielefeld U19

A. Koljic 89'

R. Jemili 49'

A. Sürü 43'

H. Refai 36'

N. Ochojski 15'

R. Massimo 52'

3/24/2018

U19 Bundesliga · West - 20Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fortuna Köln U1931%

×Draw21%

Arminia Bielefeld U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Köln U19Expected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

2.19

Fortuna Köln U19

1.71

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 62 away

1.36

creates per match

1.44

2.93

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Fortuna Köln U19

1.36

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.44

allows per match

Fortuna Köln U19

2.93

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln U19 or draw

51%

Fortuna Köln U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19

79%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19

69%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+

15%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals

82%

Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals

51%

Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals

24%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

89%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

64%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 1.36 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.71

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more

31%

level

21%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

49%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

36'

36'

43'

46'

Juan Alvarez← M. Dembele

46'

K. Schmidt← R. Mendes

46'

M. Kalac← A. Özer

49'

R. Jemili

52'

D. Yildiz← T. Fraedrich

52'

69'

70'

85'

89'

Fortuna

Arminia

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Ochojski

Koppitz

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Walocha

36'▲A. Sürü←▼K. Maletzki

46'▲Juan Alvarez←▼M. Dembele

70'▲E. Koc←▼N. Ochojski

85'▲F. Sylaj←▼R. Jemili

Fortuna Köln U19 substitutes

SürüAlvarezKocSylajKanuricGörgensKametas

Manager: A. Klisuric

46'▲K. Schmidt←▼R. Mendes

46'▲M. Kalac←▼A. Özer

52'▲D. Yildiz←▼T. Fraedrich

69'▲H. Yildiz←▼C. Siya

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

SchmidtKalacYildizYildizDoganGüntherWestphal