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Fortuna Köln II vs Wesseling-Urfeld — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Fortuna Köln II
Fortuna Köln II
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wesseling-Urfeld
Wesseling-Urfeld
3/13/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 21Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fortuna Köln II71%
×Draw15%
Wesseling-Urfeld14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Köln II
3.00
Wesseling-Urfeld
1.29

Fortuna Köln II creates 133% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 19 away

creates per match

Fortuna Köln II
1.96
Wesseling-Urfeld
1.00

allows per match

Fortuna Köln II
1.58
Wesseling-Urfeld
4.05

finishing

Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par
Wesseling-Urfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln II ↓

Wesseling-Urfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln II or draw
86%
Fortuna Köln II or Wesseling-Urfeld
85%
Draw or Wesseling-Urfeld
29%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+
51%
Wesseling-Urfeld wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals
95%
Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals
79%
Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals
56%
Wesseling-Urfeld 1+ goals
72%
Wesseling-Urfeld 2+ goals
37%
Wesseling-Urfeld 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)
84%
Wesseling-Urfeld (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 78 matches

Wesseling-Urfeld away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.96 + Wesseling-Urfeld defence 4.05 → ÷2 → 3.00

Wesseling-Urfeld attack 1.00 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Fortuna Köln II scores more
71%
level
15%
Wesseling-Urfeld scores more
14%

Fortuna Köln II at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Fortuna Köln II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Köln II vs Wesseling-Urfeld

Fortuna Köln II beat Wesseling-Urfeld 6-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark in Köln.