Fortuna Köln II 0–1 Friesdorf: Result & Stats

Fortuna Köln II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Friesdorf

3/5/2023

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 16Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Fortuna Köln II54%

×Draw20%

Friesdorf25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Köln IIExpected goals in this matchFriesdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.47

Fortuna Köln II

2.23

Friesdorf

1.47

Fortuna Köln II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 36 away

1.96

creates per match

1.36

1.58

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Fortuna Köln II

1.96

Friesdorf

1.36

allows per match

Fortuna Köln II

1.58

Friesdorf

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par

Friesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln II ↓

Friesdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln II or draw

75%

Fortuna Köln II or Friesdorf

80%

Draw or Friesdorf

46%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+

33%

Friesdorf wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals

89%

Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals

65%

Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals

38%

Friesdorf 1+ goals

77%

Friesdorf 2+ goals

43%

Friesdorf 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)

68%

Friesdorf (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 78 matches

Friesdorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.96 + Friesdorf defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.23

Friesdorf attack 1.36 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fortuna Köln II scores more

54%

level

20%

Friesdorf scores more

25%

Fortuna Köln II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fortuna Köln II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff