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Fortuna Köln II vs Bonn-Endenich — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Fortuna Köln II
Fortuna Köln II
FT
7 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Bonn-Endenich
Bonn-Endenich
9/22/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 5Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Fortuna Köln II56%
×Draw21%
Bonn-Endenich23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Köln II
2.15
Bonn-Endenich
1.31

Fortuna Köln II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 29 away

creates per match

Fortuna Köln II
1.96
Bonn-Endenich
1.03

allows per match

Fortuna Köln II
1.58
Bonn-Endenich
2.34

finishing

Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par
Bonn-Endenich+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln II ↓

Bonn-Endenich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln II or draw
77%
Fortuna Köln II or Bonn-Endenich
79%
Draw or Bonn-Endenich
44%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+
34%
Bonn-Endenich wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals
88%
Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals
63%
Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals
36%
Bonn-Endenich 1+ goals
73%
Bonn-Endenich 2+ goals
38%
Bonn-Endenich 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)
71%
Bonn-Endenich (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 78 matches

Bonn-Endenich away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.96 + Bonn-Endenich defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.15

Bonn-Endenich attack 1.03 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fortuna Köln II scores more
56%
level
21%
Bonn-Endenich scores more
23%

Fortuna Köln II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fortuna Köln II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Köln II vs Bonn-Endenich

Fortuna Köln II beat Bonn-Endenich 7-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark in Köln.