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Fortūna Kaunas vs Viltis Vilnius — Cup 2020

Fortūna Kaunas
Fortūna Kaunas
FT
1 – 2
Viltis Vilnius
Viltis Vilnius
4/20/2024CupCup · 1st RoundLFF Kauno treniruočių centras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fortūna Kaunas3%
×Draw8%
Viltis Vilnius89%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortūna Kaunas
0.60
Viltis Vilnius
3.60

Viltis Vilnius creates 500% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fortūna Kaunas
0.20
Viltis Vilnius
3.00

allows per match

Fortūna Kaunas
4.20
Viltis Vilnius
1.00

finishing

Fortūna Kaunas+0.00on par
Viltis Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortūna Kaunas ↓

Viltis Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–210%
0–313%
0–411%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (13%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Fortūna Kaunas or draw
11%
Fortūna Kaunas or Viltis Vilnius
92%
Draw or Viltis Vilnius
97%

Winning margin

Fortūna Kaunas wins by 2+
1%
Viltis Vilnius wins by 2+
74%

Team goals

Fortūna Kaunas 1+ goals
45%
Fortūna Kaunas 2+ goals
12%
Fortūna Kaunas 3+ goals
2%
Viltis Vilnius 1+ goals
97%
Viltis Vilnius 2+ goals
86%
Viltis Vilnius 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

Fortūna Kaunas (draw refunded)
3%
Viltis Vilnius (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortūna Kaunas at home — creates 0.20, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

Viltis Vilnius away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortūna Kaunas attack 0.20 + Viltis Vilnius defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.60

Viltis Vilnius attack 3.00 + Fortūna Kaunas defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Fortūna Kaunas scores more
3%
level
8%
Viltis Vilnius scores more
89%

Viltis Vilnius at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Viltis Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Fortūna Kaunas 1–2 Viltis Vilnius

Viltis Vilnius beat Fortūna Kaunas 2-1 in Cup on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at LFF Kauno treniruočių centras in Kaunas.