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Fortūna Kaunas vs BFA — Cup 2020

Fortūna Kaunas
Fortūna Kaunas
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
BFA
BFAadvanced
5/10/2023CupCup · Round of 32LFF Kauno treniruočių centras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fortūna Kaunas3%
×Draw7%
BFA90%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortūna Kaunas
0.77
BFA
4.02

BFA creates 422% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fortūna Kaunas
0.20
BFA
3.83

allows per match

Fortūna Kaunas
4.20
BFA
1.33

finishing

Fortūna Kaunas+0.00on par
BFA+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortūna Kaunas ↓

BFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–310%
0–410%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Fortūna Kaunas or draw
10%
Fortūna Kaunas or BFA
93%
Draw or BFA
97%

Winning margin

Fortūna Kaunas wins by 2+
1%
BFA wins by 2+
76%

Team goals

Fortūna Kaunas 1+ goals
54%
Fortūna Kaunas 2+ goals
18%
Fortūna Kaunas 3+ goals
4%
BFA 1+ goals
98%
BFA 2+ goals
90%
BFA 3+ goals
73%

Draw no bet

Fortūna Kaunas (draw refunded)
4%
BFA (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortūna Kaunas at home — creates 0.20, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

BFA away — creates 3.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortūna Kaunas attack 0.20 + BFA defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.77

BFA attack 3.83 + Fortūna Kaunas defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 4.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Fortūna Kaunas scores more
3%
level
7%
BFA scores more
90%

BFA at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "BFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortūna Kaunas vs BFA

BFA beat Fortūna Kaunas 6-0 in Cup on May 10, 2023.

The match was played at LFF Kauno treniruočių centras in Kaunas.