Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fortūna Kaunas vs Be1 NFA — Cup 2020

Fortūna Kaunas
Fortūna Kaunas
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
4/22/2022CupCup · 1st RoundLFF Kauno treniruočių centras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fortūna Kaunas1%
×Draw6%
Be1 NFA92%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortūna Kaunas
0.29
Be1 NFA
3.35

Be1 NFA creates 1055% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Fortūna Kaunas
0.20
Be1 NFA
2.50

allows per match

Fortūna Kaunas
4.20
Be1 NFA
0.38

finishing

Fortūna Kaunas+0.00on par
Be1 NFA+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortūna Kaunas ↓

Be1 NFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–19%
0–216%
0–317%
0–415%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (17%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Fortūna Kaunas or draw
8%
Fortūna Kaunas or Be1 NFA
94%
Draw or Be1 NFA
99%

Winning margin

Fortūna Kaunas wins by 2+
0%
Be1 NFA wins by 2+
78%

Team goals

Fortūna Kaunas 1+ goals
25%
Fortūna Kaunas 2+ goals
3%
Fortūna Kaunas 3+ goals
0%
Be1 NFA 1+ goals
96%
Be1 NFA 2+ goals
84%
Be1 NFA 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Fortūna Kaunas (draw refunded)
2%
Be1 NFA (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortūna Kaunas at home — creates 0.20, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

Be1 NFA away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortūna Kaunas attack 0.20 + Be1 NFA defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.29

Be1 NFA attack 2.50 + Fortūna Kaunas defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Fortūna Kaunas scores more
1%
level
6%
Be1 NFA scores more
92%

Be1 NFA at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Be1 NFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortūna Kaunas vs Be1 NFA

Be1 NFA beat Fortūna Kaunas 6-0 in Cup on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at LFF Kauno treniruočių centras in Kaunas.