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Fortūna Kaunas vs Babrungas — Cup 2020

Fortūna Kaunas
Fortūna Kaunas
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Babrungas
Babrungas
4/12/2025CupCup · 1st RoundLFF Kauno treniruočių centras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fortūna Kaunas1%
×Draw4%
Babrungas95%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortūna Kaunas
0.38
Babrungas
4.33

Babrungas creates 1039% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Fortūna Kaunas
0.20
Babrungas
4.45

allows per match

Fortūna Kaunas
4.20
Babrungas
0.55

finishing

Fortūna Kaunas+0.00on par
Babrungas+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortūna Kaunas ↓

Babrungas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–210%
0–314%
0–415%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–35%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (15%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Fortūna Kaunas or draw
5%
Fortūna Kaunas or Babrungas
96%
Draw or Babrungas
99%

Winning margin

Fortūna Kaunas wins by 2+
0%
Babrungas wins by 2+
86%

Team goals

Fortūna Kaunas 1+ goals
32%
Fortūna Kaunas 2+ goals
6%
Fortūna Kaunas 3+ goals
1%
Babrungas 1+ goals
98%
Babrungas 2+ goals
92%
Babrungas 3+ goals
77%

Draw no bet

Fortūna Kaunas (draw refunded)
1%
Babrungas (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortūna Kaunas at home — creates 0.20, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

Babrungas away — creates 4.45, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortūna Kaunas attack 0.20 + Babrungas defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.38

Babrungas attack 4.45 + Fortūna Kaunas defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 4.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Fortūna Kaunas scores more
1%
level
4%
Babrungas scores more
95%

Babrungas at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortūna Kaunas vs Babrungas

Babrungas beat Fortūna Kaunas 3-0 in Cup on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at LFF Kauno treniruočių centras in Kaunas.