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Fortuna Hjørring W vs VSK Aarhus W — Kvindeliga 2019

Fortuna Hjørring W
Fortuna Hjørring W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
VSK Aarhus W
VSK Aarhus W
10/26/2019KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 12Nord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Fortuna Hjørring W47%
×Draw23%
VSK Aarhus W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Hjørring W
1.76
VSK Aarhus W
1.36

Fortuna Hjørring W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 9 away

creates per match

Fortuna Hjørring W
1.85
VSK Aarhus W
1.78

allows per match

Fortuna Hjørring W
0.95
VSK Aarhus W
1.67

finishing

Fortuna Hjørring W+0.00on par
VSK Aarhus W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Hjørring W ↓

VSK Aarhus W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Fortuna Hjørring W or draw
70%
Fortuna Hjørring W or VSK Aarhus W
77%
Draw or VSK Aarhus W
53%

Winning margin

Fortuna Hjørring W wins by 2+
25%
VSK Aarhus W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fortuna Hjørring W 1+ goals
83%
Fortuna Hjørring W 2+ goals
52%
Fortuna Hjørring W 3+ goals
26%
VSK Aarhus W 1+ goals
74%
VSK Aarhus W 2+ goals
39%
VSK Aarhus W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Hjørring W (draw refunded)
61%
VSK Aarhus W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Hjørring W at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

VSK Aarhus W away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Hjørring W attack 1.85 + VSK Aarhus W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

VSK Aarhus W attack 1.78 + Fortuna Hjørring W defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fortuna Hjørring W scores more
47%
level
23%
VSK Aarhus W scores more
30%

Fortuna Hjørring W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fortuna Hjørring W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Hjørring W vs VSK Aarhus W

Fortuna Hjørring W beat VSK Aarhus W 1-0 in Kvindeliga on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Nord Energi Arena in Hjørring.