Fortuna Hjørring W 2–0 Vllaznia W: Result & Stats

Fortuna Hjørring W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vllaznia W

C. Møller 87' (pen), 6'

9/25/2019

UEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsNord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fortuna Hjørring W55%

×Draw21%

Vllaznia W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Hjørring WExpected goals in this matchVllaznia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.31

Fortuna Hjørring W

2.06

Vllaznia W

1.31

Fortuna Hjørring W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.13

creates per match

0.63

2.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Fortuna Hjørring W

1.13

Vllaznia W

0.63

allows per match

Fortuna Hjørring W

2.00

Vllaznia W

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Hjørring W+0.00on par

Vllaznia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Hjørring W ↓

Vllaznia W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Fortuna Hjørring W or draw

76%

Fortuna Hjørring W or Vllaznia W

79%

Draw or Vllaznia W

45%

Winning margin

Fortuna Hjørring W wins by 2+

32%

Vllaznia W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fortuna Hjørring W 1+ goals

87%

Fortuna Hjørring W 2+ goals

61%

Fortuna Hjørring W 3+ goals

34%

Vllaznia W 1+ goals

73%

Vllaznia W 2+ goals

38%

Vllaznia W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Hjørring W (draw refunded)

69%

Vllaznia W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Hjørring W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Vllaznia W away — creates 0.63, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Hjørring W attack 1.13 + Vllaznia W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Vllaznia W attack 0.63 + Fortuna Hjørring W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fortuna Hjørring W scores more

55%

level

21%

Vllaznia W scores more

24%

Fortuna Hjørring W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fortuna Hjørring W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

C. Møller

37'

A. Popovic← H. Dauzat

61'

A. Mustafaj← E. Eberhardy

71'

E. Lufo← S. Maliqi

75'

R. Frederiksen← S. Lundgaard

82'

M. Carstens← K. Holmgaard

87'

C. MøllerPenalty

89'

S. Carstens← E. Snerle

Fortuna

Vllaznia

1

Etzel

16

Gjini

5

Bajraktar

6

▼

4

15

11

14

17

▼

Eberhardy

8

▼

9

1

4

8

15

7

⚽2

Møller

28

▼

Holmgaard

18

Holmgaard

12

Nielsen

10

▼

Snerle

6

▼

Lundgaard

9

Franssi

Manager: C. Kveton

75'▲R. Frederiksen←▼S. Lundgaard

82'▲M. Carstens←▼K. Holmgaard

89'▲S. Carstens←▼E. Snerle

Fortuna Hjørring W substitutes

14Frederiksen22Carstens11Carstens2Karsberg-Petersen17Jakobsen19Christensen20Dissing

Manager: N. Leka

37'▲A. Popovic←▼H. Dauzat

61'▲A. Mustafaj←▼E. Eberhardy

71'▲E. Lufo←▼S. Maliqi

Vllaznia W substitutes

19Popovic18Mustafaj7Lufo3Leba12Raxhimi13Piranaj20Shega