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Fortuna Hjørring W vs St. Pölten W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Fortuna Hjørring W
Fortuna Hjørring W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
St. Pölten W
St. Pölten W
9/18/2025UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 3rd Qualifying RoundHjorring Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fortuna Hjørring W39%
×Draw23%
St. Pölten W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Hjørring W
1.62
St. Pölten W
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

creates per match

Fortuna Hjørring W
1.13
St. Pölten W
1.16

allows per match

Fortuna Hjørring W
2.00
St. Pölten W
2.11

finishing

Fortuna Hjørring W+0.00on par
St. Pölten W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Hjørring W ↓

St. Pölten W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Fortuna Hjørring W or draw
63%
Fortuna Hjørring W or St. Pölten W
77%
Draw or St. Pölten W
61%

Winning margin

Fortuna Hjørring W wins by 2+
20%
St. Pölten W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Fortuna Hjørring W 1+ goals
80%
Fortuna Hjørring W 2+ goals
48%
Fortuna Hjørring W 3+ goals
22%
St. Pölten W 1+ goals
79%
St. Pölten W 2+ goals
47%
St. Pölten W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Hjørring W (draw refunded)
51%
St. Pölten W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Hjørring W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

St. Pölten W away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Hjørring W attack 1.13 + St. Pölten W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.62

St. Pölten W attack 1.16 + Fortuna Hjørring W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fortuna Hjørring W scores more
39%
level
23%
St. Pölten W scores more
37%

Fortuna Hjørring W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortuna Hjørring W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Hjørring W vs St. Pölten W

St. Pölten W beat Fortuna Hjørring W 2-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 18, 2025.

The match was played at Hjorring Stadion in Hjorring.