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Fortuna Hjørring W vs Midtjylland W — Kvindeliga 2019

Fortuna Hjørring W
Fortuna Hjørring W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Midtjylland W
Midtjylland W
11/4/2025KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 11Nord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fortuna Hjørring W48%
×Draw25%
Midtjylland W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Hjørring W
1.64
Midtjylland W
1.16

Fortuna Hjørring W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 14 away

creates per match

Fortuna Hjørring W
1.85
Midtjylland W
1.36

allows per match

Fortuna Hjørring W
0.95
Midtjylland W
1.43

finishing

Fortuna Hjørring W+0.00on par
Midtjylland W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Hjørring W ↓

Midtjylland W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fortuna Hjørring W or draw
73%
Fortuna Hjørring W or Midtjylland W
75%
Draw or Midtjylland W
52%

Winning margin

Fortuna Hjørring W wins by 2+
25%
Midtjylland W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fortuna Hjørring W 1+ goals
81%
Fortuna Hjørring W 2+ goals
49%
Fortuna Hjørring W 3+ goals
23%
Midtjylland W 1+ goals
69%
Midtjylland W 2+ goals
32%
Midtjylland W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Hjørring W (draw refunded)
64%
Midtjylland W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Hjørring W at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

Midtjylland W away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Hjørring W attack 1.85 + Midtjylland W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.64

Midtjylland W attack 1.36 + Fortuna Hjørring W defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fortuna Hjørring W scores more
48%
level
25%
Midtjylland W scores more
27%

Fortuna Hjørring W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fortuna Hjørring W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kvindeliga: Fortuna Hjørring W 1–1 Midtjylland W

Fortuna Hjørring W and Midtjylland W drew 1-1 in Kvindeliga on November 4, 2025.

The match was played at Nord Energi Arena in Hjørring.