Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna Düsseldorf
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
2/15/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 22Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf44%
×Draw23%
Hertha BSC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.77
Hertha BSC
1.50

Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 18% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 51 away

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.77
Hertha BSC
1.69

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.31
Hertha BSC
1.76

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par
Hertha BSC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓

Hertha BSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw
67%
Fortuna Düsseldorf or Hertha BSC
77%
Draw or Hertha BSC
56%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+
23%
Hertha BSC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals
83%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals
53%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals
26%
Hertha BSC 1+ goals
78%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
44%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
57%
Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

Hertha BSC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.77 + Hertha BSC defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hertha BSC attack 1.69 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more
44%
level
23%
Hertha BSC scores more
33%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2–1 Hertha BSC

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Hertha BSC 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf.