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Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Hansa Rostock — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
4/8/20222. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 29Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf50%
×Draw24%
Hansa Rostock26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.67
Hansa Rostock
1.13

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 48% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 51 away

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.77
Hansa Rostock
0.94

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.31
Hansa Rostock
1.57

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

Hansa Rostock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw
74%
Fortuna Dusseldorf or Hansa Rostock
76%
Draw or Hansa Rostock
50%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
27%
Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
81%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
50%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
23%
Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
68%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
31%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
66%
Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.77 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
50%
level
24%
Hansa Rostock scores more
26%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Fortuna Dusseldorf 3–0 Hansa Rostock

Fortuna Dusseldorf beat Hansa Rostock 3-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 8, 2022.

The match was played at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf.