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Fortuna Dusseldorf vs FC St. Pauli — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
11/5/20222. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 15Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf47%
×Draw23%
FC St. Pauli30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.75
FC St. Pauli
1.34

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 31% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.77
FC St. Pauli
1.37

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.31
FC St. Pauli
1.72

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par
FC St. Pauli+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

FC St. Pauli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw
70%
Fortuna Dusseldorf or FC St. Pauli
77%
Draw or FC St. Pauli
53%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
25%
FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
83%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
52%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
25%
FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
74%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
39%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
61%
FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

FC St. Pauli away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.77 + FC St. Pauli defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

FC St. Pauli attack 1.37 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
47%
level
23%
FC St. Pauli scores more
30%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Fortuna Dusseldorf 1–0 FC St. Pauli

Fortuna Dusseldorf beat FC St. Pauli 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf.