Fortuna Düsseldorf 3–2 Bodo/Glimt: Result & Stats

Fortuna Düsseldorf

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Bodo/Glimt

D. Kownacki 31', 26'

J. Niemiec 19'

K. Hogh 14' (pen)

N. Zugelj 12'

1/9/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Banus Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf48%

×Draw24%

Bodo/Glimt29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna DüsseldorfExpected goals in this matchBodo/Glimt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.27

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.71

Bodo/Glimt

1.27

Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

1.55

1.00

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.50

Bodo/Glimt

1.55

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.00

Bodo/Glimt

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Bodo/Glimt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓

Bodo/Glimt →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw

71%

Fortuna Düsseldorf or Bodo/Glimt

76%

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

52%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

25%

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

82%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

51%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

24%

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

72%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

36%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

63%

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.50 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bodo/Glimt attack 1.55 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

48%

level

24%

Bodo/Glimt scores more

29%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

N. Zugelj

14'

K. HoghPenalty

19'

J. Niemiec

26'

D. Kownacki

31'

D. Kownacki

Fortuna

Bodo/Glimt

⚽

⚽

⚽

⚽2

Manager: Markus Anfang

Fortuna Düsseldorf substitutes

30Zich3Hoffmann5Quarshie7Pejcinovic9Vermeij11Klaus19Iyoha21Rossmann22Schmidt12Lunddal46SusoKrause

Manager: Kjetil Knutsen

Match Recap: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Bodo/Glimt

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Bodo/Glimt 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 9, 2025.

Goals: N. Zugelj (12'), K. Hogh (14' pen), J. Niemiec (19'), D. Kownacki (26', 31').

The match was played at Banus Football Centre in Marbella.

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Bodo/Glimt — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Bodo/Glimt