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Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 vs Werder Bremen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Werder Bremen U19
Werder Bremen U19
2/7/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1939%
×Draw22%
Werder Bremen U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.86
Werder Bremen U19
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 71 away

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.80
Werder Bremen U19
2.21

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.54
Werder Bremen U19
1.92

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par
Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 ↓

Werder Bremen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or draw
60%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or Werder Bremen U19
78%
Draw or Werder Bremen U19
61%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+
20%
Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals
84%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals
55%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals
28%
Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals
85%
Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals
56%
Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.54 · 69 matches

Werder Bremen U19 away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.92 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.80 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.86

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.21 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more
39%
level
22%
Werder Bremen U19 scores more
40%

Werder Bremen U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Fortuna
Werder
E. Vural
Manager: E. Vural
C. Makiadi
Manager: C. Makiadi

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2 – 1 Werder Bremen U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 beat Werder Bremen U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 7, 2026.