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Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 vs Verl U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Verl U19
Verl U19
10/9/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 6Paul-Janes-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1958%
×Draw20%
Verl U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
2.25
Verl U19
1.31

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 23 away

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.80
Verl U19
1.09

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.54
Verl U19
2.70

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par
Verl U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 ↓

Verl U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or draw
78%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or Verl U19
80%
Draw or Verl U19
42%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+
36%
Verl U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals
89%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals
65%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals
39%
Verl U19 1+ goals
73%
Verl U19 2+ goals
38%
Verl U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Verl U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.54 · 69 matches

Verl U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.80 + Verl U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.25

Verl U19 attack 1.09 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more
58%
level
20%
Verl U19 scores more
22%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 vs Verl U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 and Verl U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Paul-Janes-Stadion in Düsseldorf.