Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1–0 Rot-Weiss Essen U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

T. Weingarten 32'

2/26/2023

U19 Bundesliga · West - 13Paul-Janes-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1957%

×Draw21%

Rot-Weiss Essen U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19Expected goals in this matchRot-Weiss Essen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.25

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

2.12

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.25

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 54 away

1.80

creates per match

0.96

1.54

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.80

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

0.96

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.54

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 ↓

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or draw

78%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

79%

Draw or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

43%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

35%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

88%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

62%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

35%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

71%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

36%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.54 · 69 matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.43 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.80 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.12

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 0.96 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

57%

level

21%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

22%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

T. Weingarten

46'

A. Osmani← F. Munu

65'

M. Demirci← M. Brune

65'

A. Sen← A. Etri

70'

E. Yilmaz← M. Quiala Tito

80'

J. Starek← Elione Neto

80'

M. Chuisse← K. Affo

84'

M. Ademi← B. Heuser

Fortuna

Rot-Weiss

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Langeneke

70'▲E. Yilmaz←▼M. Quiala Tito

80'▲J. Starek←▼Elione Neto

80'▲M. Chuisse←▼K. Affo

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

YilmazStarekChuisseReitmaierJengErikGarić

Manager: S. Tokat

46'▲A. Osmani←▼F. Munu

65'▲M. Demirci←▼M. Brune

65'▲A. Sen←▼A. Etri

84'▲M. Ademi←▼B. Heuser

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

OsmaniDemirciSenAdemiKocagözBollenbergSombetzki