Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 0–1 RB Leipzig U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

RB Leipzig U19

T. Kaufmann 18'

5/6/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League A - 1Paul-Janes-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1935%

×Draw22%

RB Leipzig U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19Expected goals in this matchRB Leipzig U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.85

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.64

RB Leipzig U19

1.85

RB Leipzig U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 73 away

1.80

creates per match

2.16

1.54

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.80

RB Leipzig U19

2.16

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.54

RB Leipzig U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or draw

57%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or RB Leipzig U19

78%

Draw or RB Leipzig U19

65%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

17%

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

81%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

49%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

23%

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

84%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

55%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

45%

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.54 · 69 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.47 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.80 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.64

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.16 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

35%

level

22%

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

43%

RB Leipzig U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

T. Kaufmann

46'

J. Starek← K. Suso

46'

K. Knelles← M. Chuisse

48'

W. Osawe

48'

W. Osawe

53'

E. Lenz← S. Ba

53'

K. Grabovskis← C. Onuoha

53'

T. Meyer← Y. Eduardo

61'

I. Jeng← D. Bunk

66'

S. Cankirli← R. Arabaci

Fortuna

RB

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Langeneke

46'▲J. Starek←▼K. Suso

46'▲K. Knelles←▼M. Chuisse

61'▲I. Jeng←▼D. Bunk

66'▲S. Cankirli←▼R. Arabaci

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

StarekKnellesJengCankirliReitmaier

Manager: R. Peter

53'▲E. Lenz←▼S. Ba

53'▲K. Grabovskis←▼C. Onuoha

53'▲T. Meyer←▼Y. Eduardo

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

LenzGrabovskisMeyerDickes