Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 0–2 Köln U19: Result & Stats

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Köln U19

4/28/2024

U19 Bundesliga · West - 24Nebenplatz Rheinstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1932%

×Draw23%

Köln U1945%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19Expected goals in this matchKöln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.77

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.47

Köln U19

1.77

Köln U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

1.80

creates per match

2.01

1.54

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.80

Köln U19

2.01

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.54

Köln U19

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 ↓

Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or draw

55%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or Köln U19

77%

Draw or Köln U19

68%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

15%

Köln U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

77%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

43%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

18%

Köln U19 1+ goals

83%

Köln U19 2+ goals

53%

Köln U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Köln U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.54 · 69 matches

Köln U19 away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.80 + Köln U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.47

Köln U19 attack 2.01 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

32%

level

23%

Köln U19 scores more

45%

Köln U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff