Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1–2 Borussia Dortmund U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Borussia Dortmund U19

Yang Si-Woo 1'

D. Krevsun 66'

C. Herrmann 56'

4/13/2024

U19 Bundesliga · West - 22Sportplatz Flingern Hauptplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1927%

×Draw21%

Borussia Dortmund U1951%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.08

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.48

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.08

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 65 away

1.78

creates per match

2.62

1.54

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.78

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.62

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.54

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or draw

49%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19

79%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19

73%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

12%

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

77%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

43%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

19%

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

87%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

61%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.54 · 68 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 2.62, concedes 1.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.78 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.62 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

27%

level

21%

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

51%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Yang Si-Woo

46'

C. Herrmann← C. Campbell

46'

L. Posadas← E. Benkara

46'

N. Adamczyk← W. Rashidi

56'

C. Herrmann

60'

Ousmane Diallo← J. Duranville

66'

D. Krevsun

75'

S. Vũ← T. Grulke

79'

B. Eze← D. Mossi-Sezene

79'

C. Jackson← M. Len

79'

M. Quiala Tito← R. Arabaci

84'

M. Ubani← P. Brunner

Fortuna

Borussia

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: E. Vural

75'▲S. Vũ←▼T. Grulke

79'▲B. Eze←▼D. Mossi-Sezene

79'▲C. Jackson←▼M. Len

79'▲M. Quiala Tito←▼R. Arabaci

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

VũEzeJacksonTitoHolovachiovLangenbruchKnelles

Manager: M. Tullberg

46'▲C. Herrmann←▼C. Campbell

46'▲L. Posadas←▼E. Benkara

46'▲N. Adamczyk←▼W. Rashidi

60'▲Ousmane Diallo←▼J. Duranville

84'▲M. Ubani←▼P. Brunner

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

HerrmannPosadasAdamczykDialloUbaniRahmannZacharias