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Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 vs Bochum U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Bochum U19
Bochum U19
11/5/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 10Nebenplatz Rheinstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1935%
×Draw22%
Bochum U1942%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.66
Bochum U19
1.83

Bochum U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 67 away

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.80
Bochum U19
2.13

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.54
Bochum U19
1.52

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par
Bochum U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 ↓

Bochum U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or draw
58%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or Bochum U19
78%
Draw or Bochum U19
65%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+
18%
Bochum U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals
81%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals
49%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals
23%
Bochum U19 1+ goals
84%
Bochum U19 2+ goals
54%
Bochum U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Bochum U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.54 · 69 matches

Bochum U19 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.80 + Bochum U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.66

Bochum U19 attack 2.13 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more
35%
level
22%
Bochum U19 scores more
42%

Bochum U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 vs Bochum U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 beat Bochum U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Nebenplatz Rheinstadion in Düsseldorf.