Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 0–3 Arminia Bielefeld U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Arminia Bielefeld U19

Harun Köse 81'

N. Burlage 29'

A. Nezir 23'

10/22/2023

U19 Bundesliga · West - 8Paul-Janes-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1948%

×Draw22%

Arminia Bielefeld U1930%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19Expected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.49

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.93

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.49

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 62 away

1.80

creates per match

1.44

1.54

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.80

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.44

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.54

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or draw

70%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19

78%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19

52%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

27%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

85%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

57%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

30%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

77%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

44%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.54 · 69 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.80 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.93

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

48%

level

22%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

30%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

A. Nezir

29'

N. Burlage

44'

S. w. Yang

44'

S. w. Yang

46'

G. Imoijeza← D. Savic

63'

I. Jeng← R. Arabaci

63'

N. Nikolaou← B. Eze

73'

K. Engelmann← J. Starek

76'

Harun Köse← T. Krüger

76'

M. Lippert← N. Burlage

81'

Harun Köse

84'

L. Çalışkan← K. Affo

90+1'

Hasan Köse← F. Krasnic

90+1'

J. Kollmeier← L. Afolabi

90+1'

L. Haase← H. Koch

Fortuna

Arminia

Zaloga

⚽

Nezir

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Langeneke

46'▲G. Imoijeza←▼D. Savic

63'▲I. Jeng←▼R. Arabaci

63'▲N. Nikolaou←▼B. Eze

73'▲K. Engelmann←▼J. Starek

84'▲L. Çalışkan←▼K. Affo

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

ImoijezaJengNikolaouEngelmannÇalışkanCzakóGeisler

Manager: M. Drobe

76'▲Harun Köse←▼T. Krüger

76'▲M. Lippert←▼N. Burlage

90+1'▲Hasan Köse←▼F. Krasnic

90+1'▲J. Kollmeier←▼L. Afolabi

90+1'▲L. Haase←▼H. Koch

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

KöseLippertKöseKollmeierHaaseBusse

Match Recap: Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 22, 2023.

Goals: A. Nezir (23'), N. Burlage (29'), Harun Köse (81').

The match was played at Paul-Janes-Stadion in Düsseldorf.

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19