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Fortuna Düsseldorf II vs Schalke 04 II — League #87 2026

Fortuna Düsseldorf II
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Schalke 04 II
Schalke 04 II
3/21/2026League #87League #87 · West - 27Paul-Janes-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf II50%
×Draw23%
Schalke 04 II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Düsseldorf II
1.79
Schalke 04 II
1.24

Fortuna Düsseldorf II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf II
1.58
Schalke 04 II
1.43

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf II
1.05
Schalke 04 II
2.00

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf II+0.00on par
Schalke 04 II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf II ↓

Schalke 04 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf II or draw
73%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II or Schalke 04 II
77%
Draw or Schalke 04 II
50%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf II wins by 2+
28%
Schalke 04 II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf II 1+ goals
83%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II 2+ goals
53%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II 3+ goals
26%
Schalke 04 II 1+ goals
71%
Schalke 04 II 2+ goals
35%
Schalke 04 II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf II (draw refunded)
65%
Schalke 04 II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Schalke 04 II away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf II attack 1.58 + Schalke 04 II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Schalke 04 II attack 1.43 + Fortuna Düsseldorf II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf II scores more
50%
level
23%
Schalke 04 II scores more
27%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Düsseldorf II vs Schalke 04 II

Fortuna Düsseldorf II and Schalke 04 II drew 0-0 in League #87 on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Paul-Janes-Stadion in Düsseldorf.