Fortuna Düsseldorf II 4–0 SC Velbert

Fortuna Düsseldorf II

4 – 0

SC Velbert

8/5/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Paul-Janes-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf II73%

×Draw16%

SC Velbert11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Düsseldorf IIExpected goals in this matchSC Velbert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

0.96

Fortuna Düsseldorf II

2.67

SC Velbert

0.96

Fortuna Düsseldorf II creates 178% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

3.33

creates per match

1.25

0.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf II

3.33

SC Velbert

1.25

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf II

0.67

SC Velbert

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf II+0.00on par

SC Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf II ↓

SC Velbert →

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf II or draw

89%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II or SC Velbert

84%

Draw or SC Velbert

27%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf II wins by 2+

52%

SC Velbert wins by 2+

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf II 1+ goals

93%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II 2+ goals

74%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II 3+ goals

49%

SC Velbert 1+ goals

62%

SC Velbert 2+ goals

25%

SC Velbert 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf II (draw refunded)

87%

SC Velbert (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf II at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

SC Velbert away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf II attack 3.33 + SC Velbert defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

SC Velbert attack 1.25 + Fortuna Düsseldorf II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf II scores more

73%

level

16%

SC Velbert scores more

11%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff