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Fortuna Düsseldorf II vs KFC Uerdingen 05 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fortuna Düsseldorf II
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
FT
2 – 0
KFC Uerdingen 05
KFC Uerdingen 05
1/14/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf II78%
×Draw14%
KFC Uerdingen 059%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Düsseldorf II
2.81
KFC Uerdingen 05
0.83

Fortuna Düsseldorf II creates 239% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf II
3.33
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.00

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf II
0.67
KFC Uerdingen 05
2.29

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf II+0.00on par
KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf II ↓

KFC Uerdingen 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf II or draw
91%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II or KFC Uerdingen 05
86%
Draw or KFC Uerdingen 05
22%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf II wins by 2+
57%
KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf II 1+ goals
94%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II 2+ goals
76%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II 3+ goals
52%
KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals
56%
KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals
20%
KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf II (draw refunded)
90%
KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf II at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

KFC Uerdingen 05 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf II attack 3.33 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.81

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 1.00 + Fortuna Düsseldorf II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf II scores more
78%
level
14%
KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more
9%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Fortuna Düsseldorf II 2–0 KFC Uerdingen 05

Fortuna Düsseldorf II beat KFC Uerdingen 05 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.