Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 6–0 FF Baia Mare W

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W

FT

6 – 0

FF Baia Mare W

9/12/2020

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 2Stadionul Comunal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W72%

×Draw14%

FF Baia Mare W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic WExpected goals in this matchFF Baia Mare W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.64

1.68

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W

3.64

FF Baia Mare W

1.68

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W creates 117% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 31 away

3.70

creates per match

1.26

2.10

allows per match

3.58

creates per match

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W

3.70

FF Baia Mare W

1.26

allows per match

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W

2.10

FF Baia Mare W

3.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W+0.00on par

FF Baia Mare W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W ↓

FF Baia Mare W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–17%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W or draw

85%

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W or FF Baia Mare W

86%

Draw or FF Baia Mare W

28%

Winning margin

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W wins by 2+

54%

FF Baia Mare W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 1+ goals

97%

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 2+ goals

87%

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 3+ goals

68%

FF Baia Mare W 1+ goals

81%

FF Baia Mare W 2+ goals

50%

FF Baia Mare W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W (draw refunded)

83%

FF Baia Mare W (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W at home — creates 3.70, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

FF Baia Mare W away — creates 1.26, concedes 3.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W attack 3.70 + FF Baia Mare W defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 3.64

FF Baia Mare W attack 1.26 + Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W scores more

72%

level

14%

FF Baia Mare W scores more

15%

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff