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Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W vs Arad W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
FT
1 – 3
Arad W
Arad W
5/9/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 6Stadionul Comunal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W53%
×Draw18%
Arad W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.88
Arad W
2.15

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 32 away

creates per match

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
3.70
Arad W
2.19

allows per match

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.10
Arad W
2.06

finishing

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W+0.00on par
Arad W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W ↓

Arad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W or draw
71%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W or Arad W
82%
Draw or Arad W
47%

Winning margin

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W wins by 2+
34%
Arad W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 1+ goals
94%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 2+ goals
78%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 3+ goals
54%
Arad W 1+ goals
88%
Arad W 2+ goals
63%
Arad W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W (draw refunded)
64%
Arad W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W at home — creates 3.70, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Arad W away — creates 2.19, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W attack 3.70 + Arad W defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.88

Arad W attack 2.19 + Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W scores more
53%
level
18%
Arad W scores more
29%

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W vs Arad W

Arad W beat Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 3-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal in Becicherecu Mic.