Fortuna Ålesund W 2–3 Kolbotn W: Result & Stats

Fortuna Ålesund W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Kolbotn W

3/26/2023

1. Division Women · Round 1Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fortuna Ålesund W42%

×Draw23%

Kolbotn W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Ålesund WExpected goals in this matchKolbotn W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.50

Fortuna Ålesund W

1.69

Kolbotn W

1.50

Fortuna Ålesund W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

2.51

creates per match

1.88

1.11

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Fortuna Ålesund W

2.51

Kolbotn W

1.88

allows per match

Fortuna Ålesund W

1.11

Kolbotn W

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par

Kolbotn W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Ålesund W ↓

Kolbotn W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Fortuna Ålesund W or draw

66%

Fortuna Ålesund W or Kolbotn W

77%

Draw or Kolbotn W

58%

Winning margin

Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+

22%

Kolbotn W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals

82%

Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals

50%

Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals

24%

Kolbotn W 1+ goals

78%

Kolbotn W 2+ goals

44%

Kolbotn W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)

55%

Kolbotn W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Ålesund W at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.11 · 47 matches

Kolbotn W away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 2.51 + Kolbotn W defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Kolbotn W attack 1.88 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fortuna Ålesund W scores more

42%

level

23%

Kolbotn W scores more

34%

Fortuna Ålesund W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fortuna Ålesund W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff