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Fortuna Ålesund W vs KIL / Hemne W — 1. Division Women 2022

Fortuna Ålesund W
Fortuna Ålesund W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
KIL / Hemne W
KIL / Hemne W
4/26/20251. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 5Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fortuna Ålesund W64%
×Draw19%
KIL / Hemne W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Ålesund W
2.31
KIL / Hemne W
1.09

Fortuna Ålesund W creates 112% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 46 away

creates per match

Fortuna Ålesund W
2.51
KIL / Hemne W
1.07

allows per match

Fortuna Ålesund W
1.11
KIL / Hemne W
2.11

finishing

Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par
KIL / Hemne W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Ålesund W ↓

KIL / Hemne W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fortuna Ålesund W or draw
83%
Fortuna Ålesund W or KIL / Hemne W
81%
Draw or KIL / Hemne W
36%

Winning margin

Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+
42%
KIL / Hemne W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals
90%
Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals
67%
Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals
40%
KIL / Hemne W 1+ goals
66%
KIL / Hemne W 2+ goals
30%
KIL / Hemne W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)
79%
KIL / Hemne W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Ålesund W at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.11 · 47 matches

KIL / Hemne W away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.11 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 2.51 + KIL / Hemne W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.31

KIL / Hemne W attack 1.07 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Fortuna Ålesund W scores more
64%
level
19%
KIL / Hemne W scores more
17%

Fortuna Ålesund W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Fortuna Ålesund W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Ålesund W vs KIL / Hemne W

Fortuna Ålesund W and KIL / Hemne W drew 1-1 in 1. Division Women on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.