Fortuna Ålesund W 1–1 Avaldsnes W: Result & Stats

Fortuna Ålesund W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Avaldsnes W

5/20/2024

1. Division Women · Round 1Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fortuna Ålesund W61%

×Draw20%

Avaldsnes W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Ålesund WExpected goals in this matchAvaldsnes W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.06

Fortuna Ålesund W

2.12

Avaldsnes W

1.06

Fortuna Ålesund W creates 100% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 11 away

2.51

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Fortuna Ålesund W

2.51

Avaldsnes W

1.00

allows per match

Fortuna Ålesund W

1.11

Avaldsnes W

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par

Avaldsnes W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Ålesund W ↓

Avaldsnes W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Fortuna Ålesund W or draw

82%

Fortuna Ålesund W or Avaldsnes W

80%

Draw or Avaldsnes W

39%

Winning margin

Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+

38%

Avaldsnes W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals

88%

Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals

62%

Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals

35%

Avaldsnes W 1+ goals

65%

Avaldsnes W 2+ goals

29%

Avaldsnes W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)

77%

Avaldsnes W (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Ålesund W at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.11 · 47 matches

Avaldsnes W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 2.51 + Avaldsnes W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.12

Avaldsnes W attack 1.00 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Fortuna Ålesund W scores more

61%

level

20%

Avaldsnes W scores more

18%

Fortuna Ålesund W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Fortuna Ålesund W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff