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Fortuna Ålesund vs Øvrevoll Hosle — 1. Division Women 2022

Fortuna Ålesund
Fortuna Ålesund
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Øvrevoll Hosle
Øvrevoll Hosle
8/3/20221. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 8Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fortuna Ålesund60%
×Draw19%
Øvrevoll Hosle21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Ålesund
2.37
Øvrevoll Hosle
1.33

Fortuna Ålesund creates 78% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 37 away

creates per match

Fortuna Ålesund
2.51
Øvrevoll Hosle
1.54

allows per match

Fortuna Ålesund
1.11
Øvrevoll Hosle
2.22

finishing

Fortuna Ålesund+0.00on par
Øvrevoll Hosle+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Ålesund ↓

Øvrevoll Hosle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Fortuna Ålesund or draw
79%
Fortuna Ålesund or Øvrevoll Hosle
81%
Draw or Øvrevoll Hosle
40%

Winning margin

Fortuna Ålesund wins by 2+
38%
Øvrevoll Hosle wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fortuna Ålesund 1+ goals
91%
Fortuna Ålesund 2+ goals
68%
Fortuna Ålesund 3+ goals
42%
Øvrevoll Hosle 1+ goals
74%
Øvrevoll Hosle 2+ goals
38%
Øvrevoll Hosle 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Ålesund (draw refunded)
74%
Øvrevoll Hosle (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Ålesund at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.11 · 47 matches

Øvrevoll Hosle away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Ålesund attack 2.51 + Øvrevoll Hosle defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.37

Øvrevoll Hosle attack 1.54 + Fortuna Ålesund defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fortuna Ålesund scores more
60%
level
19%
Øvrevoll Hosle scores more
21%

Fortuna Ålesund at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fortuna Ålesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Ålesund vs Øvrevoll Hosle

Øvrevoll Hosle beat Fortuna Ålesund 2-1 in 1. Division Women on August 3, 2022.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.