Nesebar 1–1 Kariana Erden: Result & Stats

Nesebar

FT

1 – 1

Kariana Erden

9/15/2018

Second League · Round 7Gradski stadion (Nesebar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Nesebar37%

×Draw27%

Kariana Erden36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NesebarExpected goals in this matchKariana Erden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.23

Nesebar

1.25

Kariana Erden

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 32 away

1.09

creates per match

1.09

1.38

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Nesebar

1.09

Kariana Erden

1.09

allows per match

Nesebar

1.38

Kariana Erden

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par

Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

Kariana Erden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw

64%

Nesebar or Kariana Erden

73%

Draw or Kariana Erden

63%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+

16%

Kariana Erden wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals

71%

Nesebar 2+ goals

36%

Nesebar 3+ goals

13%

Kariana Erden 1+ goals

71%

Kariana Erden 2+ goals

35%

Kariana Erden 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)

51%

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 1.09 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + Nesebar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nesebar scores more

37%

level

27%

Kariana Erden scores more

36%

Nesebar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff