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Botev Galabovo vs Dobrudzha — Second League 2018

Botev Galabovo
Botev Galabovo
FT
0 – 0
Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
10/27/2018Second LeagueSecond League · Round 12Stadion Hristo Botev (Galabovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Botev Galabovo47%
×Draw26%
Dobrudzha27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Galabovo
1.45
Dobrudzha
1.02

Botev Galabovo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 101 away

creates per match

Botev Galabovo
1.50
Dobrudzha
0.89

allows per match

Botev Galabovo
1.15
Dobrudzha
1.40

finishing

Botev Galabovo+0.00on par
Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Galabovo ↓

Dobrudzha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Botev Galabovo or draw
73%
Botev Galabovo or Dobrudzha
74%
Draw or Dobrudzha
53%

Winning margin

Botev Galabovo wins by 2+
23%
Dobrudzha wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Botev Galabovo 1+ goals
77%
Botev Galabovo 2+ goals
42%
Botev Galabovo 3+ goals
18%
Dobrudzha 1+ goals
64%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
27%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Botev Galabovo (draw refunded)
64%
Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Galabovo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Galabovo attack 1.50 + Dobrudzha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Dobrudzha attack 0.89 + Botev Galabovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Botev Galabovo scores more
47%
level
26%
Dobrudzha scores more
27%

Botev Galabovo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Botev Galabovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Botev Galabovo 0–0 Dobrudzha

Botev Galabovo and Dobrudzha drew 0-0 in Second League on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev (Galabovo).