Fortis 1–0 Abahani Chittagong: Result & Stats

Fortis

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Abahani Chittagong

1/25/2025

Premier League · Round 9Bashundhara Kings Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fortis46%

×Draw26%

Abahani Chittagong28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FortisExpected goals in this matchAbahani Chittagong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.09

Fortis

1.46

Abahani Chittagong

1.09

Fortis creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 67 away

1.22

creates per match

1.33

0.86

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Fortis

1.22

Abahani Chittagong

1.33

allows per match

Fortis

0.86

Abahani Chittagong

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortis+0.00on par

Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortis ↓

Abahani Chittagong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fortis or draw

72%

Fortis or Abahani Chittagong

74%

Draw or Abahani Chittagong

54%

Winning margin

Fortis wins by 2+

22%

Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fortis 1+ goals

77%

Fortis 2+ goals

43%

Fortis 3+ goals

18%

Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals

66%

Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals

30%

Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fortis (draw refunded)

62%

Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortis at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Abahani Chittagong away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortis attack 1.22 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Abahani Chittagong attack 1.33 + Fortis defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fortis scores more

46%

level

26%

Abahani Chittagong scores more

28%

Fortis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff