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Forte Taganrog vs Urozhay — Second League - Group 1 2020

Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Urozhay
Urozhay
8/23/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Forte Arena Taganrog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Forte Taganrog33%
×Draw24%
Urozhay43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forte Taganrog
1.35
Urozhay
1.58

Urozhay creates 17% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 16 away

creates per match

Forte Taganrog
2.02
Urozhay
2.44

allows per match

Forte Taganrog
0.73
Urozhay
0.69

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par
Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Urozhay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw
57%
Forte Taganrog or Urozhay
76%
Draw or Urozhay
67%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
14%
Urozhay wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
74%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
39%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
15%
Urozhay 1+ goals
79%
Urozhay 2+ goals
47%
Urozhay 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
43%
Urozhay (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.73 · 63 matches

Urozhay away — creates 2.44, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 2.02 + Urozhay defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.35

Urozhay attack 2.44 + Forte Taganrog defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more
33%
level
24%
Urozhay scores more
43%

Urozhay at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Forte Taganrog 0–2 Urozhay

Urozhay beat Forte Taganrog 2-0 in Second League - Group 1 on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Forte Arena Taganrog in Taganrog.