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Forte Taganrog vs Krasnodar III — Second League - Group 1 2020

Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krasnodar III
Krasnodar III
5/4/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Forte Taganrog59%
×Draw23%
Krasnodar III19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forte Taganrog
1.85
Krasnodar III
0.93

Forte Taganrog creates 99% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 16 away

creates per match

Forte Taganrog
2.02
Krasnodar III
1.13

allows per match

Forte Taganrog
0.73
Krasnodar III
1.69

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par
Krasnodar III+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Krasnodar III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw
81%
Forte Taganrog or Krasnodar III
77%
Draw or Krasnodar III
41%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
34%
Krasnodar III wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
84%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
55%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
28%
Krasnodar III 1+ goals
61%
Krasnodar III 2+ goals
24%
Krasnodar III 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
76%
Krasnodar III (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.73 · 63 matches

Krasnodar III away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 2.02 + Krasnodar III defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.85

Krasnodar III attack 1.13 + Forte Taganrog defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more
59%
level
23%
Krasnodar III scores more
19%

Forte Taganrog at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forte Taganrog vs Krasnodar III

Forte Taganrog and Krasnodar III drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 1 on May 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Bataysk.