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Forte Taganrog vs Chernomorets — Second League - Group 1 2020

Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chernomorets
Chernomorets
3/10/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stadion Lokomotiv Rostov-na-Donu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Forte Taganrog40%
×Draw25%
Chernomorets35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forte Taganrog
1.44
Chernomorets
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 46 away

creates per match

Forte Taganrog
2.02
Chernomorets
1.91

allows per match

Forte Taganrog
0.73
Chernomorets
0.85

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par
Chernomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Chernomorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw
65%
Forte Taganrog or Chernomorets
75%
Draw or Chernomorets
60%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
19%
Chernomorets wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
76%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
42%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
18%
Chernomorets 1+ goals
73%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
38%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
54%
Chernomorets (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.73 · 63 matches

Chernomorets away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 2.02 + Chernomorets defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.44

Chernomorets attack 1.91 + Forte Taganrog defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more
40%
level
25%
Chernomorets scores more
35%

Forte Taganrog at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forte Taganrog vs Chernomorets

Chernomorets beat Forte Taganrog 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on March 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv Rostov-na-Donu in Rostov-na-Donu.