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Fortaleza W vs Atlético Huila W — Liga Femenina 2020

Fortaleza W
Fortaleza W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Huila W
Atlético Huila W
3/2/2022Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 3Estadio Municipal de Chía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fortaleza W31%
×Draw27%
Atlético Huila W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza W
1.09
Atlético Huila W
1.31

Atlético Huila W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 16 away

creates per match

Fortaleza W
0.81
Atlético Huila W
1.00

allows per match

Fortaleza W
1.61
Atlético Huila W
1.38

finishing

Fortaleza W+0.00on par
Atlético Huila W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza W ↓

Atlético Huila W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fortaleza W or draw
58%
Fortaleza W or Atlético Huila W
73%
Draw or Atlético Huila W
69%

Winning margin

Fortaleza W wins by 2+
12%
Atlético Huila W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Fortaleza W 1+ goals
66%
Fortaleza W 2+ goals
30%
Fortaleza W 3+ goals
10%
Atlético Huila W 1+ goals
73%
Atlético Huila W 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Huila W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza W (draw refunded)
43%
Atlético Huila W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza W at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

Atlético Huila W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza W attack 0.81 + Atlético Huila W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.09

Atlético Huila W attack 1.00 + Fortaleza W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fortaleza W scores more
31%
level
27%
Atlético Huila W scores more
42%

Atlético Huila W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Huila W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortaleza W vs Atlético Huila W

Fortaleza W beat Atlético Huila W 2-1 in Liga Femenina on March 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chía in Chía.