Fortaleza W 0–1 América de Cali W: Result & Stats

Fortaleza W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

América de Cali W

4/3/2026

Liga Femenina · Round 7Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fortaleza W18%

×Draw24%

América de Cali W58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza WExpected goals in this matchAmérica de Cali W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.73

Fortaleza W

0.84

América de Cali W

1.73

América de Cali W creates 106% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 60 away

0.81

creates per match

1.85

1.61

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Fortaleza W

0.81

América de Cali W

1.85

allows per match

Fortaleza W

1.61

América de Cali W

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza W+0.00on par

América de Cali W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza W ↓

América de Cali W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fortaleza W or draw

42%

Fortaleza W or América de Cali W

76%

Draw or América de Cali W

82%

Winning margin

Fortaleza W wins by 2+

6%

América de Cali W wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Fortaleza W 1+ goals

57%

Fortaleza W 2+ goals

21%

Fortaleza W 3+ goals

5%

América de Cali W 1+ goals

82%

América de Cali W 2+ goals

52%

América de Cali W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza W (draw refunded)

24%

América de Cali W (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza W at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

América de Cali W away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.87 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza W attack 0.81 + América de Cali W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.84

América de Cali W attack 1.85 + Fortaleza W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fortaleza W scores more

18%

level

24%

América de Cali W scores more

58%

América de Cali W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "América de Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Fortaleza W 0–1 América de Cali W

América de Cali W beat Fortaleza W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on April 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo.

Fortaleza W vs América de Cali W — Liga Femenina 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Liga Femenina: Fortaleza W 0–1 América de Cali W