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Fortaleza U20 vs Ferroviario U20 — Cearense U20 2026

Fortaleza U20
Fortaleza U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Ferroviario U20
Ferroviario U20
Unknown 90+6', 74', 10'
Unknown 65', 63'
8/3/2024Cearense U20Cearense U20 · 1st Phase - 6Centro de Treinamento Ribamar Bezerra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fortaleza U2064%
×Draw19%
Ferroviario U2017%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza U20
2.29
Ferroviario U20
1.09

Fortaleza U20 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Fortaleza U20
3.21
Ferroviario U20
1.50

allows per match

Fortaleza U20
0.68
Ferroviario U20
1.36

finishing

Fortaleza U20+0.00on par
Ferroviario U20+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza U20 ↓

Ferroviario U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fortaleza U20 or draw
83%
Fortaleza U20 or Ferroviario U20
81%
Draw or Ferroviario U20
36%

Winning margin

Fortaleza U20 wins by 2+
41%
Ferroviario U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fortaleza U20 1+ goals
90%
Fortaleza U20 2+ goals
66%
Fortaleza U20 3+ goals
40%
Ferroviario U20 1+ goals
66%
Ferroviario U20 2+ goals
30%
Ferroviario U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza U20 (draw refunded)
79%
Ferroviario U20 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza U20 at home — creates 3.21, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Ferroviario U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza U20 attack 3.21 + Ferroviario U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.29

Ferroviario U20 attack 1.50 + Fortaleza U20 defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Fortaleza U20 scores more
64%
level
19%
Ferroviario U20 scores more
17%

Fortaleza U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Fortaleza U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
63'
65'
74'
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cearense U20: Fortaleza U20 3–2 Ferroviario U20

Fortaleza U20 beat Ferroviario U20 3-2 in Cearense U20 on August 3, 2024.

Goals: ? (10', 63', 65', 74', 90+6').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Ribamar Bezerra in Maracanaú, Ceará.