Fortaleza U17 3–1 Juventude U17: Result & Stats

Fortaleza U17

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Juventude U17

6/16/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fortaleza U1770%

×Draw18%

Juventude U1712%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza U17Expected goals in this matchJuventude U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.80

Fortaleza U17

2.25

Juventude U17

0.80

Fortaleza U17 creates 181% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

1.79

creates per match

0.71

0.89

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Fortaleza U17

1.79

Juventude U17

0.71

allows per match

Fortaleza U17

0.89

Juventude U17

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza U17+0.00on par

Juventude U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza U17 ↓

Juventude U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fortaleza U17 or draw

88%

Fortaleza U17 or Juventude U17

82%

Draw or Juventude U17

30%

Winning margin

Fortaleza U17 wins by 2+

46%

Juventude U17 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Fortaleza U17 1+ goals

89%

Fortaleza U17 2+ goals

65%

Fortaleza U17 3+ goals

39%

Juventude U17 1+ goals

55%

Juventude U17 2+ goals

19%

Juventude U17 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza U17 (draw refunded)

85%

Juventude U17 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza U17 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Juventude U17 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza U17 attack 1.79 + Juventude U17 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.25

Juventude U17 attack 0.71 + Fortaleza U17 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Fortaleza U17 scores more

70%

level

18%

Juventude U17 scores more

12%

Fortaleza U17 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Fortaleza U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff