Fortaleza U17 2–0 Cuiaba U17: Result & Stats

Fortaleza U17

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cuiaba U17

P. Basilio 90'

F. Meirelles 45'

7/30/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 12Centro de Treinamento Ribamar Bezerra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fortaleza U1768%

×Draw20%

Cuiaba U1713%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza U17Expected goals in this matchCuiaba U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.78

Fortaleza U17

2.09

Cuiaba U17

0.78

Fortaleza U17 creates 168% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

1.79

creates per match

0.67

0.89

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Fortaleza U17

1.79

Cuiaba U17

0.67

allows per match

Fortaleza U17

0.89

Cuiaba U17

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza U17+0.00on par

Cuiaba U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza U17 ↓

Cuiaba U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fortaleza U17 or draw

87%

Fortaleza U17 or Cuiaba U17

80%

Draw or Cuiaba U17

32%

Winning margin

Fortaleza U17 wins by 2+

43%

Cuiaba U17 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Fortaleza U17 1+ goals

88%

Fortaleza U17 2+ goals

62%

Fortaleza U17 3+ goals

34%

Cuiaba U17 1+ goals

54%

Cuiaba U17 2+ goals

18%

Cuiaba U17 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza U17 (draw refunded)

84%

Cuiaba U17 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza U17 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Cuiaba U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza U17 attack 1.79 + Cuiaba U17 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.09

Cuiaba U17 attack 0.67 + Fortaleza U17 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Fortaleza U17 scores more

68%

level

20%

Cuiaba U17 scores more

13%

Fortaleza U17 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Fortaleza U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

F. Meirelles

90'

P. Basilio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff