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Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima — Primera A 2018

Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
3/15/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 9Estadio Municipal de Cota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Fortaleza FC35%
×Draw29%
Deportes Tolima35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza FC
1.09
Deportes Tolima
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 196 away

creates per match

Fortaleza FC
1.17
Deportes Tolima
1.22

allows per match

Fortaleza FC
0.96
Deportes Tolima
1.01

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Deportes Tolima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw
65%
Fortaleza FC or Deportes Tolima
71%
Draw or Deportes Tolima
65%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
14%
Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
66%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
30%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
10%
Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
66%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
30%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
50%
Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.96 · 53 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 196 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.17 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Deportes Tolima attack 1.22 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more
35%
level
29%
Deportes Tolima scores more
35%

Fortaleza FC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Fortaleza FC 1–1 Deportes Tolima

Fortaleza FC and Deportes Tolima drew 1-1 in Primera A on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Cota in Cota.