Fortaleza FC 1–1 Deportes Tolima: Result & Stats

Fortaleza FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportes Tolima

7/20/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 1Estadio Enrique Olaya Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Fortaleza FC38%

×Draw32%

Deportes Tolima30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.87

Fortaleza FC

1.02

Deportes Tolima

0.87

Fortaleza FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

0.90

creates per match

0.73

1.01

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

0.90

Deportes Tolima

0.73

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

1.01

Deportes Tolima

1.15

+0.50scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.50scores more

Deportes Tolima-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

70%

Fortaleza FC or Deportes Tolima

68%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

62%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

15%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

64%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

27%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

8%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

58%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

22%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

56%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.01 · 10 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.15 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 0.90 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

Deportes Tolima attack 0.73 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

38%

level

32%

Deportes Tolima scores more

30%

Fortaleza FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff