Fortaleza FC 3–0 Chico: Result & Stats | Primera B

Fortaleza FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Chico

J. Duque 87'

S. Acosta 28' (pen), 22'

8/3/2019

Primera B · Clausura - 3Estadio Municipal de Cota (Cota)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Fortaleza FC48%

×Draw27%

Chico25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchChico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.96

Fortaleza FC

1.44

Chico

0.96

Fortaleza FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 55 away

1.89

creates per match

0.95

0.97

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

1.89

Chico

0.95

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

0.97

Chico

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Chico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Chico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

75%

Fortaleza FC or Chico

73%

Draw or Chico

52%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

24%

Chico wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

76%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

42%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

18%

Chico 1+ goals

62%

Chico 2+ goals

25%

Chico 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

66%

Chico (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 97 matches

Chico away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.89 + Chico defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Chico attack 0.95 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

48%

level

27%

Chico scores more

25%

Fortaleza FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

S. Acosta

28'

S. AcostaPenalty

46'

C. Magallán← J. Gómez

55'

J. Duque← S. Acosta

67'

J. Galindrez← C. Rojas

72'

M. Palacios← J. Vela

75'

K. Castro← R. Bustamante

77'

J. Salazar← E. Palomino

87'

J. Duque

Fortaleza

Chico

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Barato

55'▲J. Duque←▼S. Acosta

67'▲J. Galindrez←▼C. Rojas

75'▲K. Castro←▼R. Bustamante

Fortaleza FC substitutes

DuqueGalindrezCastroHernándezCupermanRiveraMoreno

Manager: J. Gómez

46'▲C. Magallán←▼J. Gómez

72'▲M. Palacios←▼J. Vela

77'▲J. Salazar←▼E. Palomino

Chico substitutes

MagallánPalaciosSalazarGonzálezCaicedoMaturanaAlfonzo