Chico 2–2 Fortaleza FC: Result & Stats | Primera A

Chico

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Fortaleza FC

9/1/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 8Estadio de La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chico44%

×Draw29%

Fortaleza FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChicoExpected goals in this matchFortaleza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.92

Chico

1.27

Fortaleza FC

0.92

Chico creates 38% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 52 away

1.14

creates per match

0.87

0.97

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Chico

1.14

Fortaleza FC

0.87

allows per match

Chico

0.97

Fortaleza FC

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chico+0.00on par

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Fortaleza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chico or draw

73%

Chico or Fortaleza FC

71%

Draw or Fortaleza FC

56%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+

20%

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals

72%

Chico 2+ goals

36%

Chico 3+ goals

14%

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

60%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

23%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)

62%

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 110 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.14 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Fortaleza FC attack 0.87 + Chico defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chico scores more

44%

level

29%

Fortaleza FC scores more

27%

Chico at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff