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Fortaleza FC vs Bogota FC — Primera B 2018

Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
PST
22:00
Bogota FC
Bogota FC
10/23/2020Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 15Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Fortaleza FC57%
×Draw24%
Bogota FC20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza FC
1.73
Bogota FC
0.91

Fortaleza FC creates 90% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 131 away

creates per match

Fortaleza FC
1.89
Bogota FC
0.85

allows per match

Fortaleza FC
0.97
Bogota FC
1.58

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par
Bogota FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Bogota FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw
80%
Fortaleza FC or Bogota FC
76%
Draw or Bogota FC
43%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
32%
Bogota FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
82%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
52%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
25%
Bogota FC 1+ goals
60%
Bogota FC 2+ goals
23%
Bogota FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
74%
Bogota FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 97 matches

Bogota FC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.58 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.89 + Bogota FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.73

Bogota FC attack 0.85 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more
57%
level
24%
Bogota FC scores more
20%

Fortaleza FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fortaleza FC host Bogota FC

October 23, 2020: Fortaleza FC take on Bogota FC in Primera B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fortaleza FC host Bogota FC at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.