Bogota FC 0–0 Fortaleza FC: Result & Stats

Bogota FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fortaleza FC

4/29/2023

Primera B · Apertura - 15Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Bogota FC38%

×Draw28%

Fortaleza FC34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bogota FCExpected goals in this matchFortaleza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.11

Bogota FC

1.20

Fortaleza FC

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 98 away

1.30

creates per match

0.97

1.26

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Bogota FC

1.30

Fortaleza FC

0.97

allows per match

Bogota FC

1.26

Fortaleza FC

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bogota FC+0.00on par

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bogota FC ↓

Fortaleza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bogota FC or draw

66%

Bogota FC or Fortaleza FC

72%

Draw or Fortaleza FC

62%

Winning margin

Bogota FC wins by 2+

16%

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bogota FC 1+ goals

70%

Bogota FC 2+ goals

34%

Bogota FC 3+ goals

12%

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

67%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

30%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bogota FC (draw refunded)

53%

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bogota FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.26 · 130 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.10 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bogota FC attack 1.30 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Fortaleza FC attack 0.97 + Bogota FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bogota FC scores more

38%

level

28%

Fortaleza FC scores more

34%

Bogota FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bogota FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

C. Lucumi← S. Mosquera

46'

J. Barrera← José García

78'

B. Castro← M. Torres

86'

C. Zambrano← F. Cuero

86'

J. Tegue← J. Valencia

Bogota

Fortaleza

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Torres

78'▲B. Castro←▼M. Torres

86'▲C. Zambrano←▼F. Cuero

86'▲J. Tegue←▼J. Valencia

Bogota FC substitutes

CastroZambranoTeguePérezSalazarLargachaAgámez

Manager: S. Oliveros

46'▲C. Lucumi←▼S. Mosquera

46'▲J. Barrera←▼José García

Fortaleza FC substitutes

LucumiBarreraVargasGuzmánHinestrozaGarcíaBalanta